Enhancing the Predictability Limits of ENSO with Physics-Guided Deep Echo State Networks
This article presents an ENSO real-time forecasting method based on ORAS5 reanalysis data and physics-guided deep echo state networks (DESN), detailing climate-mode index construction, seasonal-cycle and trend removal, ensemble training and member selection, and reporting Niño3.4 forecast results for 2026-2027.
Normalized System Sample Entropy Linear Forecast Model
This article presents a NorSysSampEn-based linear forecast method for the 2026 El Nino peak ONI, describing the ERA5/ONI data, preprocessing, parameter search, and model construction, and reporting the corresponding forecast results and uncertainty expression.